The greenhouse gas inventory’s results help assess the progress of Finland’s climate goals

The Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) calculates the greenhouse gas emissions and sinks of Finland’s agricultural and land use sectors. Emissions and sinks reported in the greenhouse gas inventory help assess how Finland is making progress in its climate goals. Finland’s goal is to be carbon neutral by 2035.

Carbon neutrality means that the greenhouse gas emissions originating from human activities equal the sinks that sequester them. To achieve this goal, both emissions reductions and natural greenhouse gas sinks in the land use sector are important. Sinks in the land use sector are based on forest growth, or to be more exact, the carbon dioxide sequestered by trees.

Even better results by developing the inventory

In 2022, a new calculation method for soil carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forests was introduced in the greenhouse gas inventory. It is based on extensive field studies covering the whole of Finland, and unlike the previously used method, notes that global warming accelerates the decomposition of peat.

The new method produces more accurate results of carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forest soils. According to the results, emissions are higher than previously expected. Furthermore, emissions are increased by global warming which presents more challenges for achieving Finland’s national climate goal.

When the inventory is developed, the forest reference level is updated

In the EU, the climate goals set for the land use sector for 2021–2025 are based on the reference levels calculated for the land use categories in each Member State. The greenhouse gas inventory’s methods were used to calculate the forest reference level in Finland. Whenever the inventory’s methods are changed, the reference level can be updated by making a technical correction.

In 2023, the reference level was first updated after the calculation method for carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forest soils was renewed and the second time after the development of tree biomass calculations. Once the reference level has been updated, the results produced by the greenhouse gas inventory are again comparable with it. The development of the inventory methods does not change the challenges presented by the EU’s climate goals.

How are Finland’s climate goals progressing?

The forest sink has decreased significantly from the beginning of the 2000s, and in the last few years, the land use sector has become an emission source. This can be explained by the evening out of the tree growth rate and the simultaneous increase in tree harvest volumes and soil emissions from drained peatlands. This is bad news for Finland’s carbon neutrality goal, the achievement of which calls for significant natural or technological sinks.

In 2021 and 2022, the forest sinks were smaller than the updated forest reference level. In 2023–2025, forest sinks must be considerably larger so that Finland can achieve the EU’s goals set for 2021–2025. Whether we will eventually achieve the climate goals will be determined by the emission and sink results to be reported in the greenhouse gas inventory during the next few years.