Scenario calculation of the land use sector climate plan updated: if loggings increase as assumed, significant additional measures will be needed to make the land use sector a significant net sink by 2035

Since the scenario analysis conducted in 2022 to support the preparation of the Land Use Sector Climate Plan (MISU), the situation in forest sector and the calculation methods for the GHG inventory have changed significantly. These changes have been considered in the updated scenario analysis, which shows that the land use sector will not be a net sink in 2035, but a source of emissions. 

In the updated scenario, which includes the increased demand for domestic wood and the new, more accurate estimate of soil CO₂ emissions from drained peatland forests, the net sink of the land use sector in 2035 is about 23 Mt CO₂-eq. lower than in the original scenario. At the same time, the land use sector has become a 0.5 Mt CO₂-eq. source of emissions.

The decrease in the net sink, in comparison to the original scenario, is above all due to the assumption that the demand for domestic wood, and hence loggings, will increase. Together with the updates to other forest resource input parameters, increased loggings account for about two-thirds of the decrease in net sink. The remaining third is explained by higher soil emissions of drained peatland forests in the renewed calculation method.

Implementing the actions in the climate plan can still achieve the desired climate impact, but the actions are no longer sufficient to achieve a significant net sink

The measures in the Land Use Sector Climate Plan aim to reduce emissions and enhance sinks in the sector by 3 Mt CO₂-eq. by 2035. Also, in the updated scenario this target will be met, and even exceeded by 1.7 Mt CO₂-eq. if all measures are completed to the extent of the original plan. It should be noted, however, that of those measures included in the climate plan, the current government program does not support e.g., fallow afforestation and paludiculture.

One of the objectives of the updated scenario analysis was to estimate the range of the net sink for the land use sector under different levels of domestic stem wood use. To this end, two additional scenarios were developed in which the estimated use of stem wood from 2030 onwards, at the latest, was 9-10% below the 83-84 million m³ of the baseline scenario. The additional scenarios show that with reduced loggings, the land use sector would have a net sink of 9-13 Mt CO₂-eq. in 2035. 

In the current situation of the land-use sector, and especially if logging levels continue to rise as assumed, achieving a significant net sink for the land-use sector by 2035 will require emission reductions or sink enhancements well beyond the measures in the original climate plan. 

To achieve national carbon neutrality, the net sink for the land use sector needs to be larger the weaker the reductions in emissions from other sectors (energy, waste, agriculture, industrial processes and product use), or conversely, the weaker the net sink for the land use sector, the larger should be the reductions in emissions from other sectors. The most recent all-sector scenario analysis (HIISI) was conducted before energy availability problems and soaring energy commodity prices. The ongoing PEIKKO project (Baseline Scenarios for the Energy and Climate Action Package towards Zero Emissions) is preparing a new all-sector scenario review that will help to assess what further actions are needed in different sectors to achieve carbon neutrality.