New tools to assess crop yield levels during the growing season 

In agriculture, risks associated with climate change can have direct and indirect effect on yield levels via weather conditions or pest and pathogens, for instance. These risks have further been exacerbated by extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts. The created map-based service offers farmers automatically updating predictions about the yield levels as well as yield potential during the growing season, with the predictions being based on local weather conditions.   

Farmers may not necessarily comprehend the levels of their agricultural yields (kg / ha) in relation to other farms of the region. While various regional prediction systems based have been used over the years, they have been based on average yields, which has limited their usefulness. 

We developed an online system that farmers can use to get daily updating predictions about the average yields as well as the yield potential of a selected crop in their local region. The system works with various spring cereals and oil plants and is based on local weather conditions. 

The service utilized vast datasets from a long-term field experiments conducted between 1999 – 2023 on the effect of weather conditions on yield levels. This was used as the basis for modelling the effects of different weather conditions on the development of the target plants of the service. The predictions on the yield levels can be updated on a daily basis based on the occurred weather of the past as well as the previously predicted yield level. 

A realistic views on one´s own yield 

The service also takes into account the regional yield potential, the level of yield achieved by the best farms of the region. The yield potential, in turn, allows to calculate the yield gap, a valid measure for comparing the yield levels between individual farms and plots year after year, regardless of weather or the cultivated plant. 

“When farmers gain access to not only their own yields, but those from the widerregion as well, the outcome is a more realistic image on one´s own actions and on how the yield level could be increased by altering the management practices. Here, it does not hurt to have updating predictions about the regional average yields as well as the yield potential” Lauri Jauhiainen, a senior scientist from Luke summarizes.  

In addition to the new online service, the yield potential has been included in the official agricultural statistics since 2023. These statistics are maintained by Luke and their information is attainable by regions (e.g. North Karelia) for both, conventional and organic farming. “The inclusion of the yield potential has increased the usability of the agricultural yields statistics from the point of view of the farmers, the practitioners, the researchers as well as the decision makers” Anneli Partala, a senior statistician at Luke, points out. 

The online service is a tool that can help in responding to the needs to diversitfy farming practice as well as in adapting to the changing climate. It can help individual farmers to assess the level of potential yields as well as yield lossess. For the industry using cereal and oil crops, the service allows to estimate the domestic volumes and potentials for each crop. Equally, information about potentially  severe yield losses is vital for preparedness and the security of supply, especially for making decisions to utilize seeds from the security supply storages or to acquire them from abroad, for instance. 

The developed service is freely available for use at Luonnonvaratieto.fi. The service does not require registrations or log-ins.