Cereal harvest expected to remain below the average

Based on current crop outlook, a cereal harvest of 3.1 million tons can be harvested from the fields this year. The harvest falls ten percent below the average. When compared to the ten-year average values, the crop outlooks of turnip rape, rape and broad bean also remain slightly below the average. In contrast, pea harvest is expected to be as good as last year, and even the largest pea harvest in Finnish history is possible.

Regarding autumn-sown cereals grown in Finland, autumn-sown wheat and rye are growing well and their harvest expectations are high. The proportion of autumn-sown wheat of the total wheat crop will likely increase to about 33%, whereas it usually is only 10% to 20% of the total harvest.

“Despite the smaller cultivation area, rye harvest can reach up to 70,000 tons, as autumn-sown rye benefitted from the wet early spring,” states senior statistician Anneli Partala from the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke). This means that the rye harvest will not cover the annual domestic demand of around 100,000 tons.

The estimated barley harvest of approximately 1.2 million tons is about 20% below the ten-year average. Barley is the most widely cultivated cereal in Finland, followed by oats. The crop outlook of oats harvest is average, about 1.0 million tons.

Wheat and rye harvest are estimated to fall a little over 10% below the average. The crop outlook of wheat is 760,000 tons, ten times that of rye.

Last year, pea’s cultivation area grew by 80% compared to the previous year. Thanks to this, the pea harvest was the highest in the 100-year history of the statistics. This year, too, more than 20,000 hectares of peas were sown, and the harvest is expected to be as large as last year.

In 2020, the turnip rape and rape harvest volumes took a steep dive, producing the smallest harvest in 40 years. This year, the harvest volumes will see a rise, thanks to the growing cultivation area. Compared to the previous year, the harvest could double. However, the crop outlook is still one third below the ten-year average.

Autumn-sown cereals had a good start before the weather turned hot, which means that their good crop outlooks are most likely to materialise. However, the continuing dry weather could decrease the current crop outlooks of spring-sown cereals, turnip rape, rape, peas and other plants. For some fields, local thunderstorms and the rains they bring could lead to record-breaking harvest volumes.

Luke’s July crop estimates are based on local estimates supplied by experts at ProAgria Rural Advisory Centres and reflect the situation on 12 July. The estimates for each municipality are based on visual observations and local knowledge. Cultivation areas are obtained from the data systems of the Finnish Food Authority’s administrative body of rural industries.

The next crop production statistics, reflecting the situation on 23 August, will be published on 27/08/2021. The crop production statistics will be expanded and further specified on 24 November, at which time Luke will publish regional harvest information based on information obtained directly from farms.

The crop estimate table is available on the crop production statistics homepage.