Milk production is resilient – if farmers can cope

The biggest risks to dairy production are not related to technology or markets, but to people: farmer wellbeing, generational renewal and the long-term continuity of the sector. A recent Finnish survey highlights structural challenges that are highly relevant across Europe.

The biggest risks to dairy production in Finland are not related to technology, skills or markets, but to farmer wellbeing and the continuity of the sector.

A recent survey on the resilience of the dairy sector – its ability to withstand, recover from and adapt to change – paints an honest but concerning picture of the current situation. Resilience was examined from three perspectives: robustness, recovery capacity and renewal capacity.

Respondents identified two key threats above all others: farmer wellbeing and the availability of new entrants. These concerns are critical for the future of the sector. If farmers are exhausted and new ones are not entering the sector, other risk management measures at farm level become secondary.

Economic pressure is increasing uncertainty

Economic uncertainty reinforces this trend. Profitability, access to finance and market volatility are placing increasing pressure on farmers. At the same time, the complexity of agricultural policy adds to the uncertainty.

While risks such as dependence on information systems, power outages and disruptions in international trade were considered less significant by respondents, their importance increases in times of crisis. Recent years have shown that no risk is truly remote.

In this sense, the key challenges are not about capability, but about structural conditions shaping the operating environment.

Strong foundations – for now

Despite these challenges, the sector has important strengths to build on. The ability to maintain stable production is a backbone of the Finnish dairy sector. This is supported by strong farmer expertise, active product development and the use of advanced technologies – all of which are competitive also at the international level.

The survey highlights three key structural areas for development: ensuring sufficient production levels in the future, securing the stability of domestic feed production and maintaining a geographically distributed production structure. These are central questions for the entire food system.

Concentration increases vulnerability

While the concentration of production may improve efficiency, it also increases vulnerability. Dairy production must remain both economically and regionally sustainable. This means that production is sufficiently distributed and that there is a sufficient degree of diversity in the production structure.

The main resilience concerns reflect this: economic shock resistance, the age structure of farmers, and the geographical concentration of production, which increases systemic risks in livestock production.

Solutions require structural change and fair competition

The direction of solutions is clear. Addressing the concerns of the dairy sector requires forward-looking policies and bold decisions.

In a stakeholder workshop held in Mustiala, Finland, as part of the EU-funded SecureFood project, discussions highlighted the importance of fair competition and strengthening the sector’s competitiveness. Policy measures were developed and prioritised through a voting process.

The most supported measure was the requirement that imported products should meet the same quality standards as domestic production. This reflects frustration with perceived unfair competition.

Other key priorities included strengthening the appreciation of domestic food, ensuring a fair distribution of income along the value chain, and promoting sustainable feeding practices. These were followed by increasing exports, improving policymakers’ understanding of the sector, and supporting grazing.

Interestingly, simplifying agricultural support schemes received no support in the voting, which may indicate that the challenge lies not in individual instruments but in the overall complexity of the policy framework.

Resilience is at the core of food security

In a rapidly changing operating environment, Europe needs a dairy sector that can withstand crises, recover from them and continuously adapt. This requires a systematic strengthening of resilience as part of sector development.

The message from the field is clear: resilience does not emerge automatically. It is built on farmer wellbeing, generational renewal and economic sustainability.

Investing in these factors is not only agricultural policy – it is a fundamental part of European food security and strategic resilience.

Without dairy production, there is no food security.

This article is based on the ongoing EU-funded SecureFood project, which studies agricultural resilience across several EU countries and Ukraine.