Foreign trade balances fluctuations in domestic cereal supply and demand

The role of oats in the cereal harvest and the use of cereals are increasing, but no rapid changes are taking place in the distribution of consumption between cereals. In contrast, annual differences can be significant in cereal exports and imports.

Domestic consumption of cereals at the previous year’s level

The most significant part of domestic cereal production is used as feed. Even though the use of cereals as feed have shown signs of a downward trend in recent years, it remains at 1.5 billion kilos, with barley accounting for half. Of the domestic consumption of cereals, 18 per cent is used in food production and 11 per cent as seeds for new crops.

Role of oats increasing in food production

Of the annual volume of domestic cereal production, almost 500 million kilos, or 16 per cent, are used as food. This amount has remained fairly stable for years. However, slow changes can be seen in the distribution of this amount between different crops.

“Domestic demand for oats has increased in recent years. The role of oats in the annual use of cereals in the food industry has increased to more than 30 per cent. During the last decade, oats have passed rye in terms of consumption, and the annual volume of oats used in the food industry is roughly 150 million kilos,” says Johannes Nykänen, Senior Statistician at the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke).

Even though the percentage of wheat has been in a long-term decline, it still accounts for roughly half of the total consumption of cereals in the food industry. Some 230 million kilos of wheat are used annually in food production.

Oat exports at the highest level in 20 years

Domestic cereal production mainly remains in Finland. Oats make up the only cereal with a significant part of its production being exported abroad. During the last harvest year, almost 450 million kilos of oats were exported.

Cereal imports into Finland depend on the size of the domestic harvest and are only significant during poor harvest years. After the low harvest levels in 2021, almost 200 million kilos of cereals were imported into Finland in place of the typical level of a few dozen million kilos.

Background to the statistics

Luke’s Statistical Services monitor the production, use, consumption and stocks of domestic cereals on the basis of available statistical data. The cereals balance sheet and the statistics on the use of crops on farms are compiled every harvest year. The most recent statistics are estimates for the harvest year from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024. The statistics are available at luke.fi/en. The Finnish Cereal Committee also monitors the status of the current harvest year (1 July 2024 – 30 June 2025) on a quarterly basis on its website. On 20 September, Luke will publish harvest estimate statistics, representing the harvest outlook for Finnish fields as of 16 September 2024.