Guiding restoration by improving ecosystem models

Ecosystem restoration is a key pillar of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the Nature Restoration Regulation (NRR). Yet,

its implementation is constrained by fragmented actions, limited monitoring capacity, and the lack of integrated modelling tools to

evaluate restoration outcomes across scales. Harmonised approaches are needed to assess biodiversity and ecosystem service gains from

restoration activities, and to predict their long-term effects under changing climate and land-use conditions. These gaps limit Europe’s

ability to align restoration planning with biodiversity targets, climate mitigation and adaptation goals, and land degradation neutrality.

RestMod will deliver an integrated framework to support the monitoring, modelling, and assessment of ecosystem restoration in forests,

wetlands, and grasslands across Europe. To achieve this, we will: 1) co-create restoration pathways, 2) couple leading ecosystem process

and biodiversity models (e.g., LPJ-GUESS, G4M, HMSC), 3) simulate restoration scenarios and trajectories towards 2030 and 2050

targets, and 4) generate actionable outputs for practitioners, landowners, and policymakers. RestMod combines empirical restoration

data, remote sensing, and eDNA with scalable models and participatory co-creation approaches at Open Labs across major European

biogeographic zones. In doing so, we will generate high-resolution restoration pathways, spatial prioritisation maps, and open-access

decision-support tools, tailored to stakeholder needs and aligned with EU and global frameworks such as the Kunming-Montreal Global

Biodiversity Framework. By closing critical gaps between data, models, and decision-making, RestMod will equip the EU and its Member

States with the knowledge and tools needed to implement effective, equitable, and climate-resilient restoration strategies.