Waterfowl Pair Counts and Breeding Success 2026

The numbers of breeding pairs increased from the previous year for two of the huntable dabbling duck species, the mallard and the northern pintail. The number of wigeon pairs remained at the same level as in the previous year, while pair numbers declined for the other game duck species. Breeding success per pair was lower than in the previous year for the four most important game waterfowl species: mallard, teal, wigeon, and common goldeneye. The total number of mallard ducklings was close to the long-term average, whereas for the other three species it remained below their long-term averages. The long-term population trend is declining for most duck species.

For most duck species, breeding pair numbers have declined over the full monitoring period (1986–2026). Similar trends are apparent over the past decade, although the decline is statistically significant only for the northern shoveler.

Long-term trends indicate declining duck populations in both eutrophic and oligotrophic waterbodies. Since the mid-1990s, duck numbers have fallen by more than 50% in eutrophic waters and by approximately 20% in oligotrophic waters. During the last decade, populations in oligotrophic waters have remained largely stable, while the decline has continued in eutrophic habitats.

In southern and central Finland, breeding pair numbers of the four most important game waterfowl species, the mallard, teal, wigeon, and common goldeneye, generally increased compared with the previous year, with the exception of the common goldeneye, whose pair numbers declined. In northern Finland, wigeon pair numbers remained stable, whereas those of the mallard, teal, and common goldeneye were lower than a year earlier.

Breeding success per pair declined from the previous year in the most important game waterfowl species. Wigeon breeding success remained close to its long-term average, while the other species fell below average levels. In the mallard, an increase in breeding pair numbers offset the decline in breeding success, keeping the total number of ducklings at the previous year's level and close to the long-term average. For the teal, common goldeneye, and wigeon, however, total duckling numbers were lower than a year earlier and remained below their long-term averages.

Mallard. Nationwide, the number of mallard breeding pairs is 6% above the long-term average and 12% higher than in 2025 (Figure 1). Over the entire monitoring period (1986–2026), the mallard population has increased by 15%. During the past decade, however, numbers have declined in southern and central Finland while increasing in northern Finland, although none of these changes are statistically significant. Compared with 2025, breeding pair numbers decreased by 7% in northern Finland but increased by 12% in southern Finland and by 21% in central Finland.

Teal. Nationwide, the number of teal breeding pairs is 11% below the long-term average and 5% lower than in 2025 (Figure 1). The teal population has declined by 27% over the entire monitoring period. During the past decade, teal numbers appear to have decreased in northern Finland, although the change is not statistically significant. In southern and central Finland, the population appears to have remained relatively stable over the same period. Compared with 2025, breeding pair numbers declined by 38% in northern Finland but increased by 10% in southern Finland and by 8% in central Finland.

Wigeon. Nationwide, the number of wigeon breeding pairs is 67% below the long-term average and 9% higher than in 2025 (Figure 1). The wigeon population has declined by 61% over the entire monitoring period. During the past decade, wigeon numbers have decreased by 20% in southern Finland. Survey results also suggest declines in central and northern Finland, although these changes are not statistically significant. Compared with 2025, breeding pair numbers remained close to the previous year's level in northern Finland (-2%) but increased by 10% in southern Finland and by 8% in central Finland.

Common Goldeneye. Nationwide, the number of common goldeneye breeding pairs is 19% below the long-term average and 18% lower than in 2025 (Figure 1). The common goldeneye population has declined by 15% over the entire monitoring period. During the past decade, breeding pair numbers have decreased by 26% in southern Finland and by 22% in central Finland. Survey results suggest that the species has increased in northern Finland during the same period, although the change is not statistically significant. Compared with 2025, breeding pair numbers were 26% lower in northern Finland, 13% lower in southern Finland, and 11% lower in central Finland.

Northern Pintail breeding pair numbers nationwide are 43% below the long-term average and 32% higher than in 2025. Over the entire monitoring period, the Northern Pintail population has declined by 75% (Figure 2).

Tufted Duck breeding pair numbers are 49% below the long-term average and 15% lower than in 2025. Over the entire monitoring period, the Tufted Duck population has declined by 78% (Figure 2).

The national population of the Whooper Swan has increased by 278% over the entire monitoring period. During the last ten years, however, the number of breeding pairs has not shown a statistically significant increase (Figure 2).

The number of breeding pairs of Common Merganser was 27% below the long-term average and 11% higher than in 2025. The Common Merganser population has declined by 47% over the entire monitoring period (Figure 3).

The number of breeding pairs of Red-breasted Merganser was 10% below the long-term average but 41% higher than in 2025. The Red-breasted Merganser population has declined by 51% over the entire monitoring period (Figure 3).

The number of breeding pairs of Black-throated Diver has remained stable over both the long term and the past ten years. In southern Finland, the Black-throated Diver has increased by 49% over the entire monitoring period (Figure 3).

Northern Shoveler breeding pair numbers are 65% below the long-term average and 5% lower than in 2025. The Northern Shoveler population has declined by 71% over the entire monitoring period and by 38% during the last ten years (Figure 4).

Because of the scarcity of Common Pochards, the available dataset is small, making the assessment of recent population changes uncertain. Based on the survey data, breeding pair numbers are 82% below the long-term average. The Common Pochard population has declined by 97% over the entire monitoring period (Figure 4).

Eurasian Coot breeding pair numbers are 63% below the long-term average and 22% lower than in 2025. The Eurasian Coot population has declined by 76% over the entire monitoring period (Figure 4).

The total number of ducklings produced and brood size per breeding pair were analyzed for the four most important and abundant game duck species, Mallard, Eurasian Teal, Eurasian Wigeon, and Common Goldeneye, for the period 1989–2026. The total number of ducklings produced reflects the abundance of sustainably harvestable birds present in a given year relative to other years. Brood size per breeding pair measures breeding success relative to other years.

Mallard duckling numbers have remained stable over both the long term and the last ten years, with no statistically significant trends, although brood size per breeding pair has declined over the long term. In 2026, the total number of ducklings was close to the long-term average, while brood size per breeding pair was 7% below the long-term average. The total number of ducklings was at the same level as in 2025, whereas brood size per breeding pair was 12% lower than the previous year.

For the Eurasian Teal, the total number of ducklings produced has declined over the long term but remained stable during the last ten years. Brood size per breeding pair has also decreased over the long term but increased during the past decade. In 2026, the total number of ducklings was 19% below the long-term average, and brood size per breeding pair was 13% below the long-term average. Compared with 2025, the total number of ducklings was 13% lower, and brood size per breeding pair was 12% lower.

For the Eurasian Wigeon, the total number of ducklings produced has declined sharply over the long term as a result of a substantial decrease in breeding pair numbers. Over the long term, brood size per breeding pair has remained stable. During the last ten years, however, the total number of ducklings has been stable and brood size per breeding pair has increased. In 2026, the total number of ducklings was 36% below the long-term average due to reduced breeding pair numbers. Brood size per breeding pair was close to the long-term average. Compared with 2025, the total number of ducklings was 13% lower, and brood size per breeding pair was 18% lower.

For the Common Goldeneye, both brood size per breeding pair and the total number of ducklings produced have declined over the long term, but during the last ten years both metrics have remained stable, with no statistically significant trends. In 2026, the total number of ducklings was 20% below the long-term average, and brood size per breeding pair was 26% below the long-term average. Compared with 2025, the total number of ducklings was 11% lower, and brood size per breeding pair was 16% lower.

The primary objective of the Waterfowl Monitoring Program is to track changes in duck breeding populations and to assess annual reproductive success in different types of wetlands and across different regions of Finland. Surveys are conducted mainly on inland waters and coastal bays, with survey sites concentrated in southern Finland. The data are needed for planning the management of waterfowl habitats, regulating sustainable hunting, and monitoring aquatic biodiversity.

The monitoring program is based on waterfowl point counts conducted twice each year. Breeding pairs are counted during spring surveys, while broods are counted during summer surveys. The monitoring methods are described in the Waterfowl Monitoring Method Description.

The surveys are coordinated by the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) and the Finnish Museum of Natural History (Luomus), while the fieldwork is carried out by volunteer hunters and birdwatchers. The 2026 results are based on surveys from 1257 breeding-pair count sites and 423 brood count sites.

We warmly thank all survey participants for their valuable contribution to wildlife monitoring and research.