Pathways for linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects







PLUMES aims to significantly improve quantification and reporting of key uncertainties in climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) analysis, with a focus on Finland and two sectors, agriculture and human health. It will provide a regional interpretation of a new global framework of forcing (representative concentration pathways – RCPs) and socioeconomic (shared socioeconomic pathways – SSPs) scenarios, and apply it together with improved climate, crop and other modelling approaches. PLUMES will (1) develop climate scenarios for Finland, put in the context of their predecessors but increased in scope and methods of presentation: (2) narratively describe alternative future socioeconomic and technological developments in Finland that are consistent with global SSP storylines: (3) identify key sources of uncertainty in the modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields and on weather-related human mortality: (4) depict elements of the RCP/SSP scenarios for Finland, as well as potential impacts of these on agricultural production potential and externalities (both biophysical and socioeconomic dimensions), and on the vulnerability of the elderly to future changes in extreme weather: and (5) provide access and guidance to the new scenarios and to the new tools for quantifying impacts and their inherent uncertainties.