This project emanates from the need of reliable forecasts of unmanaged forests for carbon storage. Specifically, it will address the question of mortality among trees in old, fully stocked stands in order to produce more realistic forecasts of carbon storage in unmanaged stands.
The aim of the project is to put together available measurement data from old forests of Finland, Sweden and Norway and construct mortality models for Scots pine and Norway spruce dominated stands in Finland, Norway and Sweden. The goal is to construct models which are capable to realistically predict mortality rates in old stands, and which distinguish between mortality due to self-thinning and mortality due to disturbances such as fire, pathogens, insect outbreaks and storms. The mortality models will thereafter be used in the simulation systems Motti (Finland), Heureka (Sweden) and Skogsim (Norway) for long-term scenario analysis.