FACCE-MACSUR Modelling climate change risk to European agriculture and food security

FACCE-MACSUR Climate change ri






FACCE MACSUR is a pilot action by the Joint Programming Initiative Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE JPI) on the topic “Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR)”. The work is organized in three themes on crop, livestock and trade modelling (cropM, liveM and tradeM, respectively). The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. The overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. Various modelling tools are used to support the decision making and planning in agriculture. An important component in this is crop modelling. Yet, recent reviews revealed that neither crop modelling approaches nor the simulation tools are fully up to the task. The component cropM has the ambition to improve the situation by quantifying the uncertainty in their results and reduce the various model uncertainties through model intercomparison, compiling data as required to fill knowledge gaps, eliminating model deficiencies and improving methods for scaling and uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, cropM intends to further develop crop rotation modelling which will allow FACCE MACSUR as a whole to apply and look at new ways of applying farming systems modelling in risk assessment. This will also require enhanced efforts on linking crop and soil modelling, which also will improve opportunities for exploring linkages between adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. Similar modelling tools will be developed in LiveM. Moreover, in TradeM the integrated bio-economic modelling tools and sub-national level will be further developed – and drawing from CropM and LiveM input – will be applied in a Finnish regional pilot study (North Savo). For more information, see http://www.macsur.eu.

On 16 March 2015 the second phase of FACCE MACSUR (two years extensions - 1 June 2015 to 31 May 2017) has been approved. It will build on the results from MACSUR1 and further develops CropM, LiveM and TradeM methodology and tools and apply these for ex ante evaluation of adaptation options for the Finnish regional pilot as well as for Europe-wide CC risk assessment.