Innovative modelling approaches for the identification of boreal forest management strategies under a changing climate Projektin nimi (ENG)

Boreal forests provide economic and ecosystem services and are key for climate change mitigation actions, including fossil fuel substitutions. At the same time, boreal regions are warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Traditional forestry management practices may not be adequate when warmer climates become the new norm. New approaches need to be developed, to prepare boreal forests for future conditions, so that they will continue to produce biomass, support boreal nations in achieving their sustainability targets, and provide a variety of ecosystem services. Models are a powerful tool to explore how inherently uncertain future climates will affect forest and how different management strategies (species choice, manipulation of tree density and age) may alter the vulnerability of boreal forests to climate change.

With a focus on Nordic countries, the project further develops state-of-the art models and exploit available data to 1) identify the key mechanisms behind boreal forest response to climate change, including in full the randomness and unpredictability of climatic conditions; 2) locate the hotspots of vulnerability to climate change and define management strategies that preserve productivity and reduce the occurrence of abiotic stressor; 3) assess their suitability, given the preferences and risk attitudes of different forest owners. These results will support stakeholders in designing forest management practices for climate-smart forestry.

The project is collaboration between Swedish Agricultural University (SLU) and Luke