News Agriculture, Statistic

Combined harvesters are at work whenever possible. It is a race against the autumn weather. What is certain is that peak crop levels cannot be reached. Risks associated with the grain harvest estimate result from the late start to the growing season and the heavy rains in autumn. If grain cannot be harvested, total crops will be smaller than estimated.

Photo: Erkki Oksanen, Luke

“The favourable beginning of the growing season turned into a painful wait. Whether or not crops are ready for harvesting before the autumn is the question everyone is asking. Once again, weather conditions during the autumn harvest will determine the final volume and quality of crops,” says Anneli Partala, senior statistician from the Natural Resources Institute Finland.

Harvesting before grain is ripe has been the solution on more farms than usual. It is estimated that approximately 10 per cent of the total cereal volume has been harvested green. Late harvesting increases quality risks in harvested crops. Any realisation of these risks can be identified in the next few weeks.

Oats harvest to increase by 10 per cent

The oats harvest can still increase by nearly 10 per cent to roughly 1.1 billion kilograms. The barley harvest is expected to decrease by 10 per cent to 1.4 million tons. Overall, the cereal harvest will be at the previous year’s level, meaning that it will not reach peak levels this year either.

Self-sufficiency about to be reached in rye?

The rye crop can reach the highest level since 1990. If realised, the harvest of nearly 120 million kilograms would cover the domestic demand for rye during a normal year, for the third time in this century. Furthermore, the rye harvest would be one third larger than the year before.

The growing season hampers with the record-high broad bean and turnip rape crop volumes

The delayed harvest hampers severely with the record-high broad bean and turnip rape crop volumes. If harvesting succeeds as expected, both will reach a new record, as the broad bean acreage, in particular, has increased continuously.

This year’s grain harvest estimate the second smallest in the 2000s.

Background to the statistics

Luke’s September harvest estimates are based on local estimates supplied by experts at ProAgria Rural Advisory Centres and reflects the situation on 18 September. The estimates for each municipality are based on visual observations and local knowledge. The areas under cultivation are obtained from the data systems of the administrative body of rural industries.

More detailed information about crop volumes will be obtained on 23 November when information is available from farms for the calculation of crop volumes.